Since May, the market price of chloroform has continued to rise. On May 29, the domestic reference price of chloroform was 2980 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 7.45% from the beginning of the month. At present, the peak production and marketing season of chloroform downstream refrigerant has arrived, and the trading atmosphere is good. In the case of relatively tight supply, the industry generally expects that the price of chloroform will remain high and firm in the short term.

Raw material prices go up

With the gradual recovery of natural gas market, methanol market trend in the main upstream of chloroform is good. Under the favorable expectation that international problems such as Iran will affect the source of imported goods and the commissioning of several downstream units, the aftermarket of methanol will maintain a high level of fluctuation, providing cost support for chloroform.

From the end of April, methanol market got rid of the downward trend and began to move higher. On May 29, the reference price of methanol market reached 2340 yuan, up 166 yuan or 7.64% from the beginning of the month. According to Wang Ke, a methanol dealer in Liaoning Province, recently, news has come out that many downstream units have started or increased their load, and the rising freight has led to an increase in the delivery cost of methanol. Therefore, there is no lack of possibility that methanol prices will continue to rise in the near future.

According to reports, Dalian Hengli Petrochemical's new 820000 T / a MTBE unit has been put into operation. With the gradual increase of load, part of the self-produced methanol will be digested, and the export volume may be further reduced; the later start-up load of the 600000 T / a MTO unit of Jiutai is expected to increase, and the export of methanol will also decrease, and there is even the possibility of stopping or exporting; Datang 460000 T / a MTP plant and Luxi new 300000 t / a MTO plant have been put into operation. Lihuayi MTBE plant has plans to resume production in the near future. Overall, the domestic methanol market is still likely to continue to rise before mid June, bringing cost support to chloroform.

Tight supply

Since March, there have been a number of explosion accidents in chemical enterprises and transport vehicles in many places throughout the country. The state has further strengthened the safety and environmental protection supervision of the chemical industry. Under the influence of safety and environmental protection supervision and equipment maintenance and other factors, the operating rate of chloroform industry is low and the market supply is tight.

The "3.21" particularly serious explosion accident triggered the most severe environmental protection storm in Jiangsu Province. Shandong Province, a major chemical industry province, also introduced a number of control measures to further tighten the safety and environmental protection policies of chemical industry. These large chemical provinces chloroform production enterprises are more concentrated, resulting in a low operating rate of the industry. In addition, due to the maintenance of some production plants, the supply of chloroform market is tight, and enterprises and traders mostly limit the shipment and the inventory is at a low level.

It is understood that in the near future, the 440000 T / a methane chloride plant of Shandong Jinling Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to be overhauled; the operating load of 220 kt / a plant of Luxi Chemical is about 60%; and the load of 80000 T / a chloroform plant in Chongqing Tianyuan is reduced to 50%.

The decrease of operating rate and the maintenance of the plant make the supply of chloroform more and more tense, and the manufacturers have raised the ex factory prices. On May 29, the ex factory price of chloroform in Jiangxi Liwen company has reached 3600 yuan, and the ex factory price of some chloroform enterprises in Shandong Province has also reached more than 3000 yuan.

The demand season is coming

"The domestic chloroform market is affected by the strong demand for downstream refrigerants, and the price continues to rise." Analysts analyzed that with the arrival of summer, the main downstream refrigeration industry of chloroform ushered in the peak season of production and sales, especially the R22 refrigerant market, which was strongly affected by various factors, pushed the price of chloroform further higher.

The demand of trichloromethane is relatively narrow, and R22 is the main refrigerant. It is understood that the National Climate Center has confirmed that 2019 is an "El Nino year", with a high probability of high temperature in summer and a large amount of refrigerant demand is expected. With the gradual increase of the operating rate of air-conditioning enterprises and the strong demand for refrigerants, R22 market is running strongly. R22 quoted on May 27 was 19000 yuan, up 2.62% from May 19.

There are three main factors for the rise of R22 Market: first, raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are not stable under the situation of strict environmental protection, which leads to the price rise of products in the whole industrial chain; second, the annual peak season of refrigerants starts before summer, and the second and third quarters are the peak seasons for air-conditioning production and maintenance, with considerable demand for refrigerants; Third, in consideration of phasing out the use of ozone depleting refrigerants, relevant manufacturers are required to carry out production according to the national quota. R22 production quota will be reduced again this year and further reduced to 35% of the benchmark by 2020. When the demand is basically stable, the reduction of quota year by year will lead to tight supply and demand. " Chen Fan said.

Generally speaking, the overall operating rate of methane chloride production enterprises is low, the spot supply is tight and the inventory is low. Although the demand of downstream market is general, the peak season of refrigerant demand is coming, and the short-term trichloromethane market is expected to rise.